New econometric model
A new methodology that combines statistical approaches used in the economy with volcanology and climate science allows prior knowledge unknown or uncertain natural phenomena. This econometric model could revolutionize the techniques used today to make these kinds of predictions.
The idea of creating a new econometric method, arose from a chance meeting Felix Pretis, an expert in econometrics and co-director of the project Climate Econometrics research in the Department of Economics at Oxford University with Jason Smerdon, dedicated scientist to study the volcanic impact on climate.
In their research, the two developed a method that allows the analysis to certain volcanic eruptions makes projections on climate characteristics for millennia.
But what these scientists now conclude is that improving understanding of the effects of aerosols on temperature – something that has implications for pollution control – will be easier to advance in the study on the improvement of climate models. This may help understand climate change.
As this technique shows that historical volcanic eruptions can be statistically detected without the prior knowledge of their occurrence or magnitude – with this research also opens the extraordinary possibility of developing better statistics that will help to predict more accurately climate and volcanic phenomena.